Confidence: 96.2%
Acute stress with extreme volatility and liquidity breakdown. Correlations spike, violent drawdowns, and panic selling. Typically characterized by VIX above 35, sharp equity drops, and flight to cash/treasuries. The regime is determined by a Hidden Markov Model trained on 5 years of rolling data across equity returns (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA), volatility (VIX), dollar strength (DXY), yield curve spreads (2s10s), inflation expectations (5Y breakeven), and jobless claims. The confidence score of 96.2% represents the model's posterior probability of being in the current state.
SPY
741.00
+12.01
+1.65%
IWM
298.97
-0.86
-0.29%
QQQ
724.08
+17.56
+2.49%
DIA
521.68
+3.93
+0.76%
VIX
17.65
-0.76
-4.13%
DXY
101.27
-0.10
-0.09%
CRUDE_OIL
70.27
+0.03
+0.04%
GOLD
3992.90
-110.10
-2.68%
SILVER
57.69
-1.92
-3.22%
NATURAL_GAS
3.17
-0.11
-3.41%
COPPER
6.15
-0.04
-0.70%
WHEAT
580.75
-8.00
-1.36%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
-1 bps
5Y Inflation Exp.
2.52%
-2 bps
Initial Claims
215,000
+6,000
2s10s Spread
0.41%
-1 bps