Confidence: 96.2%
Acute stress with extreme volatility and liquidity breakdown. Correlations spike, violent drawdowns, and panic selling. Typically characterized by VIX above 35, sharp equity drops, and flight to cash/treasuries. The regime is determined by a Hidden Markov Model trained on 5 years of rolling data across equity returns (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA), volatility (VIX), dollar strength (DXY), yield curve spreads (2s10s), inflation expectations (5Y breakeven), and jobless claims. The confidence score of 96.2% represents the model's posterior probability of being in the current state.
SPY
776.34
-1.54
-0.20%
IWM
305.09
+1.59
+0.52%
QQQ
731.07
-1.00
-0.14%
DIA
536.80
-1.11
-0.21%
VIX
14.25
-0.38
-2.60%
DXY
99.64
-0.26
-0.26%
CRUDE_OIL
82.40
+1.26
+1.55%
GOLD
4432.00
+47.00
+1.07%
SILVER
64.82
+0.74
+1.16%
NATURAL_GAS
2.71
-0.03
-1.06%
COPPER
6.61
+0.03
+0.52%
WHEAT
689.00
+16.25
+2.42%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
+0 bps
5Y Inflation Exp.
2.24%
+3 bps
Initial Claims
215,000
+6,000
2s10s Spread
0.41%
-1 bps