Confidence: 95.4%
Acute stress with extreme volatility and liquidity breakdown. Correlations spike, violent drawdowns, and panic selling. Typically characterized by VIX above 35, sharp equity drops, and flight to cash/treasuries. The regime is determined by a Hidden Markov Model trained on 5 years of rolling data across equity returns (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA), volatility (VIX), dollar strength (DXY), yield curve spreads (2s10s), inflation expectations (5Y breakeven), and jobless claims. The confidence score of 95.4% represents the model's posterior probability of being in the current state.
SPY
737.62
+6.04
+0.83%
IWM
284.17
+1.91
+0.68%
QQQ
711.23
+16.29
+2.34%
DIA
496.13
+0.22
+0.04%
VIX
17.19
+0.11
+0.64%
DXY
97.84
-0.38
-0.38%
CRUDE_OIL
94.68
-0.92
-0.96%
GOLD
4723.70
-5.00
-0.11%
SILVER
80.83
+0.42
+0.52%
NATURAL_GAS
2.75
-0.03
-0.90%
COPPER
6.28
+0.10
+1.69%
WHEAT
620.00
+8.50
+1.39%
Fed Funds Rate
3.64%
+0 bps
5Y Inflation Exp.
2.61%
+3 bps
Initial Claims
200,000
+11,000
2s10s Spread
0.49%
+0 bps